THE WAR THAT NEVER ENDS: Martin Armstrong, Cycles of Conflict, and the Profit of Perpetual Crisis. Explore Martin Armstrong’s insights on perpetual war, global instability, and why markets and geopolitics follow the same human-driven cycles.

Gold to hit $5000 and silver to rise to $50 is forecast by the maverick maven Martin Armstrong. 

     

In a world teetering on the brink of regional upheaval, with wars in Eastern Europe, tensions in the Middle East, and global markets roiling with uncertainty, many wonder if we are approaching another World War. Economist and forecaster Martin Armstrong offers a sobering yet clarifying framework for understanding this global disarray—not through ideology or emotion, but through the predictable cycles of human nature. His message: war is not the exception; it's the pattern.

Armstrong’s controversial but compelling worldview rests on seven interwoven themes, each grounded in data, history, and lived experience. From financial crashes to geopolitical gambits, his forecast is less about the apocalypse and more about the pendulum swing of civilizations—repeating, reverberating, and rarely learning.

Markets and Mobs: The Pendulum of Panic

Armstrong argues that markets behave like pendulums, not engines of reason. Investors swing wildly from euphoria to despair, driven by sentiment, not fundamentals. Crashes occur not because of shadowy saboteurs, but because everyone rushes to the same side of the boat, and when it tips, there’s no bid left to catch the fall.

This same pendulum logic applies to geopolitics. Nations don’t stumble into war because of singular events, but because pressure builds, alliances entangle, and irrational overconfidence overtakes cooler judgment—until something snaps.

Cycles Repeat Because Human Nature Doesn't Change

Armstrong’s AI system, Socrates, catalogs patterns in human behavior across centuries and continents. It recognizes that despite technological advancement, the core impulses—greed, fear, pride, revenge—remain constant. Whether it’s the 1929 crash, the 1987 Black Monday, or the 2008 meltdown, the underlying behavioral script is the same.

Applied to foreign policy, this explains why Russia has been targeted repeatedly across history—by Sweden, Napoleon, Hitler, and now NATO expansionists. The motive? Power and resources. The method? Manufactured fear. The result? Predictable escalation.

War Is Business by Other Means

Armstrong’s most scathing critique is reserved for neoconservatives and globalist actors who, in his view, keep the world in perpetual conflict not to win, but to profit. He argues that wars like Ukraine and Iraq were never about freedom or democracy, but about regime change, defense contracts, and natural resources.

He recounts the scuttled peace deal in Ukraine—allegedly shut down by Boris Johnson on behalf of Western interests—as proof that peace is bad for business. War keeps the machinery turning. Lives lost are collateral damage in the pursuit of economic dominance.

The Myth of Inflation: Gold Rises with Geopolitical Risk

Contrary to popular belief, Armstrong says precious metals like gold and silver don’t rise with inflation, but with geopolitical instability. In other words, when trust in governments evaporates, people hedge with tangible assets—not because bread is more expensive, but because civilization is more fragile.

Thus, his forecast for gold at $5,000 and silver at $50 isn’t rooted in CPI indexes, but in the likelihood of military escalation, civil unrest, and the collapse of monetary credibility in Western governments.

Civilizations Collapse from Within

Armstrong highlights how Europe, not just the battlefield of war, but the womb of its causes, is heading toward internal collapse. He blames mass migration, cultural fragmentation, and economic stagnation for a growing tide of unrest. Cities are powder kegs, not due to poverty, but because of irreconcilable worldviews, religious tensions, and leadership failure.

As with Rome, revolutions often start with bread and end with ideology. His concern is not just for the borders of Europe, but for its cities and streets, which may become battlegrounds of a new kind—civil wars within once-stable societies.

The "Contagion Effect": War Is Never Contained

From Ukraine to the South China Sea, from Israel to Iran, Armstrong insists conflict is not compartmentalized. Like a virus, it spreads—militarily, economically, and psychologically. The Balkan powder keg of 1914 needed only an archduke’s assassination to ignite a world war. Today’s tripwires are more numerous, more complex, and far more explosive.

He observes that historical rivalries—Greece vs. Turkey, India vs. Pakistan, China vs. Taiwan—are all flaring simultaneously. These are not isolated quarrels; they are symptoms of a deeper global dislocation, like tectonic plates grinding toward a mega-quake.

False Flags and Manufactured Consent

Armstrong doesn’t shy away from pointing to the historical use of false flags to justify wars—from Operation Northwoods to Pearl Harbor, from WMDs in Iraq to recent whisperings about Ukrainian plots involving Soviet torpedoes. His claim is not that every war is a conspiracy, but that leaders frequently exploit fear and deception to gain public support for aggression.

He argues that "truth" is often a narrative weapon, not a fixed reality. And those who control the narrative—mainstream media, intelligence agencies, and aligned corporations—can make war palatable, even virtuous.

Final Reflection: A War Without End

Armstrong’s forecast is not one of doom, but of sobering realism. The dream of global peace, he suggests, is naïve unless human nature itself is reformed—which history shows no signs of happening. As long as fear is profitable, truth is malleable, and governments remain unaccountable, wars will continue—not as exceptions, but as the default setting of fallen empires.

In his view, we are not heading for Armageddon as a singular apocalypse. We are already living through it—slowly, region by region, headline by headline. It is not mushroom clouds we should fear, but the unrelenting erosion of sovereignty, sanity, and the sacred value of life.

While many dismiss Armstrong as a provocateur or outlier, his track record and model speak volumes. Whether or not we heed his warnings, one thing is certain: the pendulum always swings back, and it often knocks down empires when it does.